The problem with recessions is that earnings decline, and P/E multiples decline both at the same time. When these two metrics decline at about the same time, a significant market decline (drawdown) typically occurs. In the post WWII era, the worst drawdown occurred between December 2007 and June 2009 when the S&P 500 declined -57%. […]
Over the past several decades, one of the most reliable economic indicators has been the shape of the US Treasury yield curve. The yield curve is simply a graph of current yields on treasury bonds from the three-month T-Bill to the 30-year treasury bond. The normal shape of the yield curve from left to right […]
