Our Outlook
The financial planning industry is ever evolving at an extremely fast pace. Our Outlook is our way to make sure you have the latest information and SWA perspective on how to navigate your investment planning through the changes.
Featured Blog Post
Recession Signal?Our Outlook
Over the past several decades, one of the most reliable economic indicators has been the shape of the US Treasury yield curve. The yield curve is simply a graph of current yields on treasury bonds from the three-month T-Bill to the 30-year treasury bond. The normal shape of the yield curve from left to right […]
Read MoreAll Blog Posts from Our Outlook
-
Investing In A Recession
Our Outlook
Let’s talk about investing in a recession. The problem with recessions is that earnings decline, and P/E multiples decline both at the same time. When these two metrics decline at about the same time, a significant market decline (drawdown) typically occurs. In the post WWII era, the worst drawdown occurred between December 2007 and June […]
-
Recession Signal?
Our Outlook
Over the past several decades, one of the most reliable economic indicators has been the shape of the US Treasury yield curve. The yield curve is simply a graph of current yields on treasury bonds from the three-month T-Bill to the 30-year treasury bond. The normal shape of the yield curve from left to right […]
-
P&G resilience in times of turmoil
Our Outlook
There are certain things in life that are generally known by all. For instance, the sky is blue, bananas are yellow, grass is green, and P&G is a defensive investment in times of uncertainty. What does that mean? When economic uncertainty rises, investors generally seek safe (or safer) havens. A safe haven is an investment […]
-
Investing in Bear Markets
Our Outlook
At the extremes, both bull markets and bear markets cause investors to replace logic with emotion. Bull markets can create investor manias and a fear of missing out, or FOMO in today’s pop lingo. Bear markets trigger fear and cause investors to place an unreasonably high probability on the worst possible outcome. Both phenomena produce […]
-
War and Markets
Our Outlook
Just as COVID related mandates and restrictions started to abate in the US and around the world, Russia invaded Ukraine. First, our prayers go out to all those impacted by war. Innocent people killed, maimed, or whose lives are destroyed in other ways as they find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time. […]
-
Market Quick Stats – February 2022
Our Outlook
The S&P 500 finished down (-3.1%) in February. Including January’s decline, the year-to-date total return is a dismal -8.01% for the benchmark stock index. Like the early stages of other significant market selloffs, there is almost no place to hide. Even bond returns are down -3.0% so far this year (see the chart below). There […]
-
It’s Tax Season, Can You Still Reduce Last Year’s Tax Bill?
Our Outlook
Every January ushers in a new tax year, and it’s when we all begin the process of closing out last tax year. As you start gathering the annual alphabet soup of tax reports (W2, 1099-R, 1099-INT, K-1, etc…), take note of what income sources you can control in whole or in part. Even though 2021 […]
-
Questions on Inflation and Employment
Our Outlook
January Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) jobs expectations were for +150,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.9% (here). Reported new jobs tripled expectations coming in at +467,000 (here). The unemployment rate ticked a bit higher to 4.0% as more workers came back into the labor market. On its surface the NFP report looks great; however, […]
-
Market Quick Stats – January 2022
Our Outlook
The S&P 500 finished down (-5.2%) in January, the worst start since a (-9.8%) loss in January 2009. Notable S&P 500 decliners in January included, Moderna (-33.3%), and Netflix (-29.1%). The 30 stock Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its biggest declines in Cisco Systems (-12.1%), Home Depot (-11.5%), and Nike (-11.1%). Taking a sneak peek […]
-
PG Q2 2022 Earnings Commentary
Our Outlook
On January 19, 2021 Procter & Gamble reported 2nd quarter 2022 earnings results (see press release here). For the quarter, the company reported 6% top line revenue growth to $20.9 Billion versus last year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) in Q2 was $1.66 vs. a $1.65 consensus estimate and up from $1.64 a year ago […]
-
PG Stock Valuation
Our Outlook
Procter & Gamble shareholders enjoyed a 20.0% total return in calendar year 2021 and the third 20% plus return since 2012. Shareholders suffered only one calendar year stock price decline over the past ten years, and that was in 2015. Significant foreign exchange conversion woes and a volume growth malaise were the culprits then and […]
-
How to Save More Money in 2022
Our Outlook
Here’s a simple investing and planning tip for the new year. If your employer offers a 401(k)-retirement savings plan, join the plan. If you are already in the plan but are not yet maximizing your contributions, increase your salary deferral at least 1%. If you can afford to forego more money today to save for […]
-
Inflation Update
Our Outlook
Inflation figures through the most recent reporting period ended November 2021, saw the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All-Items rise 6.8% over the past twelve months. According to the BLS, this is the largest 12-month increase since 1982. Inflation readings for Energy rose 33.1% and Food rose 6.1%. Both are the largest 12-month increases in […]
-
Market Quick Stats – Year End 2021
Our Outlook
The S&P 500 finished up 4.4% in December to close out a strong 2021. At year-end, the 505 firms in the index were cumulatively valued over $42 trillion. The top 10 constituents comprised 29.3% of the total weight of all companies in the index. For perspective, the top weighted company, Apple, ended the year valued […]
-
Consumer Goods – Post Pandemic
Our Outlook
It’s no secret that the COVID pandemic and related government mandated shutdowns created winners and losers. Businesses that were deemed essential were generally winners and those deemed non-essential were generally losers as they were shut down to varying degrees. Clearly, restaurants, restaurant suppliers, hotels, airlines, and other travel related companies were impacted the most negatively. […]
-
Market Quick Stats – November 2021
Our Outlook
November’s S&P 500 total return of -0.69%, was a tad negative. However, the 30 stock Dow Jones Industrial Index fell -3.5% driven by declines in 25 of the 30 companies in the index. Looking toward December, fears of a December 15th US debt ceiling limit will likely resurface. And, markets will be focused on Chairman […]
-
Tax Efficient Investing Tips
Our Outlook
In December, we all get busier preparing for the holidays, buying gifts, attending holiday parties, traveling to see family, and spending more time with children and grandchildren. It can be easy to forget about planning and investments for a while. However, amidst the holiday hustle & bustle you don’t want to overlook your annual opportunity […]
-
Infrastructure Bill
Our Outlook
On November 15th, President Biden signed a $1 trillion+ infrastructure spending bill into law. The bill focuses mostly on traditional infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges and rails that need maintenance and upgrades. Biden’s much larger and more controversial “Build Back Better” proposal for climate/green initiatives has not yet been approved by congress. Funding is to […]
-
Supply/Demand Imbalances
Our Outlook
Global supply chain issues are both a supply and a demand problem. On the supply side, labor has become scarce. Pandemic related mandatory shutdowns, COVID quarantines, and older worker retirement decisions have combined to create a serious labor shortage. In the October National Association of Business Economics (NABE) survey, 47% of respondents reported a shortage […]
-
Investing & Planning
Our Outlook
Each Halloween, or ‘All Saints Eve’, ushers in All Saints Day on November 1st. In Christian traditions, both All Saints Day and All Souls Day (November 2nd) are annual reminders of our own mortality. This makes each November a good time for investors to review their beneficiary designations. Make it habit to set aside an […]
-
Market Quick Stats – October 2021
Our Outlook
Fears sparked by reports of a possible default at China’s Evergrande, and the impending US debt ceiling limit drove the S&P 500 to a -4.6% loss in September. How quickly fears faded after Evergrande averted default (for now) and congress extended the debt ceiling limit to December 3rd. These thaws and strong Q3 corporate earnings […]
-
P&G Q1 fiscal year 2022 Earnings Results
Our Outlook
On October 19th, 2021 Procter & Gamble reported 1st quarter results for fiscal year 2022 (see press release here). The company reported net sales of $20.3 billion, representing 5% top line revenue growth versus Q1 2021. Looking at sequential quarters, top line growth slowed from the 7% pace posted in Q4 2021. Diluted GAAP earnings […]
-
Supply Chain Disarray
Our Outlook
Global Shortages Semiconductor chip shortages impacting the auto industry are well documented, but how bad are they? Apparently, bad enough that respected German firm Bosch believes global semiconductor supply chains for the auto industry are no longer “fit” for their original purpose. Moore’s Law Over the past few decades, Moore’s Law has played out, and […]
-
PG’s Roth 401k. Is it right for you?
Our Outlook
Roth 401k Savings Option In July 2018, P&G added a Roth 401k option to their employee 401k retirement savings plan. The Savings Plan is a defined contribution plan that enables employees to defer a portion of their salary into a company sponsored retirement plan investment account. 2021 IRS Contribution Limits The 2021 IRS elective 401k […]
-
FAFSA – Time to Get Started
Our Outlook
Overview On October 1st, the Free Application for Federal Student Aid form (FAFSA) became available for the 2022-2023 school year. This is the application form used for Federal tuition assistance, but the application may also be used by your state and individual colleges and universities. Not Expecting Aid? Even if you do not expect your child […]
-
Market Quick Stats – September 2021
Our Outlook
After 53 new closing highs so far this year, it seemed like this market could only go up…until September. The S&P 500 started the month with its 54th new high and then volatility crept in. By the end of a rollercoaster like month, September tallied a -4.76% decline; the first decline since January 2021. The […]
-
Focus on Investments
Our Outlook
What is Driving this Market? Can anything stop this market? Slowing growth and a recession certainly could, but are they anywhere on the horizon? A host of COVID specific federal unemployment benefits are set to expire on September 6th 2021. Among the expiring emergency benefits is an extra $300 per week of unemployment income. Federal […]
-
Market Quick Stats – August 2021
Our Outlook
Higher and higher Through August 30th there have been 53 new closing highs for the S&P 500. This market is closing in on the record 77 new all-time highs which occurred in 1995 (h/t Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices). The chart below highlights recent prices, total returns (total return always includes dividends), dividend […]
-
P&G CEO Transition, What to Expect?
Our Outlook
CEO Transition As David Taylor’s tenure as CEO comes to completion on November 1st, Jon Moeller will take over responsibilities as Chief Executive Officer and President at Procter & Gamble. David Taylor will move to Executive Chairman of the Board (here). The company has seen a fair amount of turnover in the CEO position since […]
-
Bond Rates Are Declining, Why?
Our Outlook
What are Lower Yields Telling Us? On March 19, 2021, the benchmark ten-year US Treasury bond closed yielding 1.74%. By the first trading day in August the bond’s yield had dropped to 1.20%. With all of headlines and talk about rising inflation, why have bond yields dropped so significantly since March? The bond market and […]
-
Why My Property Tax Increased & Yours May Too
Our Outlook
A Rising Home Value is Good Right? Yes, but in a way it’s a double edged sword. Have you looked at your mortgage escrow statement recently? I did and my jaw dropped. My real estate taxes just jumped 31%. It must have been a mistake I thought. Then I called my county auditors office and […]
-
Market Quick Stats – July 2021
Our Outlook
Back to Normal? Not So Fast… Just as most restaurants and business in cities with the most stringent COVID precautions/restrictions started to re-open, some of those locations are introducing new COVID precaution/restriction measures. For example New York City mayor Bill de Blasio recently announced mandatory vaccinations for all newly hired NYC government employees and for […]
-
P&G 2021 Q4 & Year End Earnings
Our Outlook
On July 30th, 2021 Procter & Gamble reported 4th quarter & fiscal year-end 2021 earnings results (see press release here). For the quarter, the company reported 7% top line revenue growth to $18.9 Billion versus last year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) in Q4 was $1.13 vs. a $1.08 consensus estimate. Overall ‘organic’ revenue increased […]
-
How to Look at Market Valuations
Our Outlook
What is a “Fair” Price for Stock Before you buy or invest in stock, you’ll want to answer the question: Are stocks valued appropriately for the current level of economic activity or expected level of activity over the next twelve months? You can think about stock valuations a little like you might think about a […]
-
Is 2021 Back to Normal Yet?
Our Outlook
(Re) Open For Business Here we are halfway through 2021. Restaurants and business throughout the nation are re-opening. How is this return to normal playing out in the economy and stock and bond markets? As of June 30th, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, the S&P 500 index of US stocks is up 15.2% year-to-date (YTD). […]
-
Focus on Personal Finances
Our Outlook
High Debt Levels Higher levels of corporate, government, and personal debt may be creating a more fragile economic environment. In past decades, low debt was considered prudent and desirable. Today, fiscal policies pursued by the US Federal government have pushed our national debt over $28 trillion, and zero interest rate (ZIRP) monetary policies of the US […]
-
What About Bitcoin?
Our Outlook
Crypto Curiosity Record breaking prices propelled Bitcoin into the mainstream news this spring. We have fielded more and more questions about cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin specifically. It appears likely that blockchain technology and maybe some cryptocurrencies may survive. Ultimately, how they are regulated and how widely they will be used as currency or for […]
-
Taxes & Energy Policy
Our Outlook
Individual Tax Rates The current US government administration is considering raising taxes for individuals & families, corporations and even estates. A recent CNBC article discussed how the Biden administration is looking to raise the top marginal tax bracket to 39.6% from 37.0%. Coupled with this is the likelihood of lower income thresholds for each tax […]
-
Inflation and the Economy – 1st Half 2021
Our Outlook
Inflation – Persistent or Transitory? One of the biggest financial news themes this year has been inflation. There is no question that price inflation is on the rise. Is it here to stay, or will recent increases be short-lived and transitory? Each month, a US government agency called the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures […]
-
PG Q3 2021 Earnings Results
Our Outlook
On April 20th, 2021 Procter & Gamble reported 3rd quarter 2021 earnings results (see P&G’s press release here). For the quarter, the company reported top line revenues of $18.1 Billion; up 5% versus last year and beating the $17.9 Billion consensus revenue estimate. Diluted earnings per share in Q3 was $1.26 vs. a $1.19 consensus […]
-
P&G Q1 2021 Earnings Results
Our Outlook
On October 20th, 2020 Procter & Gamble reported 1st quarter 2021 earnings results (see P&G’s press release here). For the quarter, the company reported top line revenues of $19.3 Billion, beating the $18.3 Billion consensus estimate and diluted earnings per share were $1.63 vs. the $1.43 consensus estimate. First quarter 2021 net sales growth was […]
-
September 2020 Non-Farm Payroll Employment (NFP)
Our Outlook
On October 2nd, 2020 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that September Non-Farm Payroll Employment rose by 661,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell by 0.5% to 7.9% (see full release here). The unemployment rate dropped below the key 8% level although job gains were below estimates forecasted by Marketwatch at 810,000. September represents […]
-
P&G Q4 & Full-Year 2020 Earnings Results
Our Outlook
On July 30th, 2020 Procter & Gamble reported their 4th quarter and Full-Year 2020 earnings results (see P&G’s press release here). For the quarter, the company reported top line revenues of $17.7 Billion, beating the $17.0 Billion consensus estimate, and bottom line ‘core’ earnings of $1.16 besting the $1.01 consensus eps estimate. For the year, […]
-
Financial Terms Glossary
Our Outlook
The world of financial terms can be a confusing one to navigate. In this blog, you’ll find a list of commonly used financial industry terms. At Schmitt Wealth Advisers, we don’t expect you to know all of these. Let us help you get the most out of your investments so you can focus on what […]
-
Procter & Gamble Commentary on Q3 2020 Earnings
Our Outlook
Days before reporting earnings, P&G announced a dividend increase of 6%. The company has paid a dividend every year since 1890. On April 17, 2020, Procter & Gamble reported fiscal 2020 third quarter earnings (here). The firm reported ‘core’ earnings of $1.17 per share, better than consensus expectations of $1.13 and up 10.3% from 2019 […]
-
What Happens When You’re Facing Early Retirement at Procter & Gamble — Your Financial Future
Our Outlook
A Road Diverged As public companies strive to meet or beat earnings targets, change is inevitable. Sometimes brands or segments are consolidation to reduce costs. Employees impacted by a consolidation or reduction in force (RIF) may have the opportunity to take an early retirement package. Similar to retirement, deciding whether to accept an early retirement package […]
-
P&G Stock Nuances You Need to Know
Our Outlook
Procter & Gamble has two main retirement programs for its employees: the P&G PST & ESOP Plan (PST Plan) and the P&G 401(k) Savings Plan. When it comes to the type of P&G stock contributions made inside your PST Plan, there are some important nuances that may benefit you as you look to achieve your financial goals. […]
-
Confused by NUA Tax Rules for 2020?
Our Outlook
Now that 2020 is in full swing, what does the new decade mean for NUA tax rules? What’s new? What could you have missed as it relates to distribution decisions for your P&G PST Plan? Before diving into the NUA strategy yourself, let us provide a quick refresher and cover what it entails. What Is […]
-
Procter & Gamble Commentary on Q2 2020 Earnings
Our Outlook
On January 23, 2020, Procter & Gamble reported fiscal 2020 2nd quarter earnings. The firm reported ‘core’ earnings of $1.42 per share, $0.05 better than consensus expectations of $1.37. Also, GAAP diluted net earnings was $1.41 per share. Aside: Why is there a difference between GAAP and ‘core’ earnings? GAAP, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, includes everything […]
-
Procter & Gamble Reports 2019 Q4 and Full-Year Earnings
Our Outlook
Procter & Gamble Q4 & Full-Year 2019 Earnings
-
A Look at Tax Increase Proposals
Our Outlook
Taking a look at the recently proposed 3% wealth tax and raising the top marginal income tax rate to 70%.
-
-
Much Ado About Tariffs
Our Outlook
Recently announced tariffs on steel & aluminum imports has created an economic commentary uproar. Should you be concerned?
-
Tax Reform & Economic Impact
Our Outlook
In addition to reducing corporate & personal tax rates, recent tax reform has already resulted in dozens of U.S. Corporations announcing; new employee bonuses, increased minimum wage, new hiring intentions and new capital spending.
-
P&G adds Nelson Peltz and Joseph Jimenez to Board of Directors
Our Outlook
Procter & Gamble adds Nelson Peltz and Joseph Jimenez to Board of Directors
-
FOMC Rate Decision – November 2017
Our Outlook
The FOMC left the target rate unchanged at 1.00% – 1.25% effective November 1, 2017
-
Commentary – August 22, 2017
Our Outlook
TD Ameritrade Economic research discusses the upcoming need for congress to pass a budget and raise the debt ceiling. Humanitarian aid and rebuilding from the devastation left by Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf Coast is a critical need that congress will also have to address.
-
FOMC Interest Rate Decision – June 14, 2017
Our Outlook
The FOMC raised short term interest rates by 1/4 percent to 1.00% effective June 14, 2017.
